Buy on the sound of cannon
Sell on the sound of trumpets
Is this old saying accurate?
“Buy on the sound of cannons, sell on the sound of trumpets”
This old saying was attributed to Londer financier Lord Rothschild back in the 1800s.
And what I think he was really saying is “Buy on bad news, sell on good”
Similar to “Buy the rumour, sell the fact” right?
But if we take it literally, how accurate is that statement?
I took a bunch of recent wars, invasions, or other stupid sh1t humans do to each other… and marked the invasion date as a vertical line on an S&P 500 chart.
Here are the results:
1990 Gulf War – Rallied the day the US started bombing Iraq (Operation Desert Storm).
2003 Iraq War – US-led bombing campaign started on 20th March 2003 (Rally).
Afghanistan War – Officially started on the 7th of October 2001. Small rally to year end then a range before selling off over summer.
Russia invades Ukraine – Russia invaded Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022. A few-month rally followed by a sell-off.
Conclusions:
Ok so my sample size was small, but the evidence is mixed.
Wars that the US were directly involved in seemed to have a bullish impact on equities.
Why was that?
- A build-up of bad news and fear over time finally being relieved by the US taking action?
- Or does it happen to be part of the market cycle?
Who knows…
My hunch is that it’s the peak bad news effect.
When everyone is worried about war and conflict, it dominates the news for months before.
On the day of invasion, we know how the tabloids love to run big dramatic headlines.
The rallies could be a kind of relief, the worst has happened, and we know what’s happening so we can price risk accordingly.
Unknowns are always the biggest weight on a market, just look at Covid.
When we didn’t know what we were dealing with, the market tanked on the ‘what ifs’.
Once we knew what was going on, the market ripped higher despite the damage to the economy…
That’s human nature folks!
Anyway, until we stop throwing bombs at each other to solve problems… Like it or not, war is going to impact the markets we trade.
And it pays to be prepared.