Election Night Market Movers:
What Could React the Strongest

Key Market Movers and Trade Ideas for Election Night

What’s likely to move the most during the election?
​
Remember, the ‘expected’ move isn’t always what happens.
​
So while you might hear “If X happens, buy Y,” keep in mind that surprises are common during elections.
​
I’ve seen it many times, the media scrambles to justify unexpected moves with a plausible story after the fact. There will always be an outlier.
​
Ok, let’s dive in.

SENSITIVE MARKETS

The usual suspects:

  • US indices: Russell, S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq
  • Dollar pairs: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD
  • Country-specific pairs: USD/CNH and USD/MXN

Why these? Trump has been vocal on trade with China and Mexico, meaning tariffs and border policies could lead to major shifts.

A decisive Trump win could rally USD/MXN, while a Trump win with a split Congress might see less impact.

What else?

STOCKS, SECTORS, AND THEMES

My growing election watchlist. 👆🏻

Trump win

Expected to be good for:

✅ Oil and gas – Pro-fossil fuels and deregulation.
✅ Crypto – Trump has proclaimed the US will be the ‘Crypto Capital’ if he wins
✅ Defence – Increased military spending, potentially boosting defence stocks.
✅ Dollar – Tax cuts, deregulation, pro-business initiatives
✅ Stocks – Pro-business policies, tax cuts, and infrastructure spending (Russell 2000 is a possible outperformer here)

Expected to be bad for:

❌ Renewable energy – Solar, wind, and renewables could struggle under Trump
❌ Healthcare – Trump aims to reduce drug prices and RFK Jr is very critical of pharma
❌ Technology – Not quite as clear cut here, but Trump has taken aim at big tech’s handling of data, privacy, and free speech.
❌ Emerging markets – Tough trade policies for China, Mexico, etc.

A Harris win is expected to have the opposite effect…

BTW to save you from wading through pages of fluff.

Here’s how I interpret the election scenarios, without getting too deep into the weeds:

(And I am not an expert on this… I’m a mere trader trying to cobble together a half-decent roadmap for the 5th!)

Anything that’s considered Bullish under a Trump win becomes more Bullish if Republicans win both the House and the Senate.

They are more likely to push through more aggressive policies without the other side forcing them to water things down.

The same goes with Harris.

A clean sweep gives them more power to push through what they want.

So, using oil as an example:

  • Trump clean sweep is theoretically ‘max bullish’ for oil stocks,
  • Trump President, split Congress would be ‘moderately bullish’,
  • Harris President, split Congress ‘moderately bearish’,
  • Harris clean sweep ‘max bearish’

You get the idea…

In short, a unified government amplifies policy impacts, while a split government tempers them.

And not to sound like a broken record but that’s all “theory”… anything can happen.

Price is king.