Optimise Your Trading Decisions

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Preparations Before Making a Decision

Our job as traders is to make the best decisions we possibly can. In the heat of the moment when the market is moving quickly, we need to decide.

Long, short, or no trade…?

It’s a simple decision but one with big consequences and a huge array of variables. Not to mention the influence our emotions play on the decision… One way to improve our in-the-moment decisions is to remove how many decisions we need to make.

Compare these two decisions:

#1

  • The market is trading at 15,000 that’s an interesting level. Should I go long for a bounce or short a break?
  • What data is coming up?
  • What’s the daily chart looking like?
  • Where would I put my stop on this?
  • Should I scale in first?
  • This candle looks weak, should I wait for it to close first?

#2

  • Should I buy it here or not?

Number two is obviously a much easier decision to make. You can put ALL of your focus and energy into making that decision as best as you can.

“But Mark! All those other decisions need to be made! You can’t just ignore them”

Quite right… But what you can do is make nearly all of those decisions BEFORE the crucial one. You can eliminate a lot of the cognitive load and free yourself to make the best possible decision.

Let’s dissect:

Should I go long or short?

Make life easy for yourself. Decide on a direction bias and then chose whether to take the trade or not. Flip-flopping back and forth between long and short is a recipe for disaster. Long or not, simple.

What data is coming up?

Pre-market prep 101, know your headline risk for the day and if there’s any highly anticipated data coming up soon that could influence the day type today. (eg The day before FOMC is often range bound).

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What’s the daily chart doing?

Again – this should all be done before the market opens. Know what that daily is doing!

Where would I put my stop on this?
Should I scale in first?
This candle looks weak, should I wait for it to close first?

This is where your trading plan comes into its own.

Having your risk management, trade management, and trade trigger criteria dialled in beforehand makes life so much easier.

Sure, you might need to make some on-the-fly adjustments and calculations, but the point is that the more decisions you can make before the trade, the better you’re decision-making will be.

Today look at your trading decision process.

Could you make some of those decisions pre-market?

How could you free up some of your mental bandwidth in the trading day to make better and clearer decisions?

How can you make your life easier?

You only need to make one decision well to win…

Thinking Fast and Slow

This book Thinking Fast and Slow is worth a read if you haven’t yet. This was a great quote, very apt for trading:

“The gorilla study illustrates two important facts about our minds: we can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness.”